Claim
As of 2025, reusability has disappointed on launch-cost reductions, with negligible $/kg improvements evident in public data.
Evidence
According to Counting stars and costs: An empirical examination of space launch cost trend at NASA...
- NASA's launch cost increased by an average of 2.8% annually from 1996 to 2024.
- No evidence of a shift in cost trend even after the introduction of a new provider.
- Results show limited effects of the competitive market.
- Policies assuming a competitive market should be re-assessed to foster competition.
Note that the reported cost increase is over and above inflation. The study analyzed NASA's proprietary data on its commercial launch contracts.
Reviews
The following reviews are limited in scope to the validity of the claim made above, and do not imply that the reviewer has taken a position regarding any other claim or the overall feasibility of a concept that is supported by this claim.
- 0?UnknownReputation: 0Verdict: SupportsAerospace economist; 15+ years analyzing launch pricing.
“Public payload/price data show only modest $/kg reductions so far.”
No review body provided.
Submitted: · Edited: - 0?UnknownReputation: 0Verdict: Supports
“Prince”
Test 1
Submitted: · Edited: - 0
Reputation: 0Verdict: Supports40 Year experience at engineering systems, 12 years experience in space.“A strong case is made here that bucks conventional wisdom.”
I reviewed all of the referenced material and found methodology to be sound and the evidence to be quite convincing.
Submitted: